Muslim World Report

Could Trump Have Won in 2020 Without COVID-19's Impact?

Dr. Anthony Lindsay | Apr 30, 2025 2:10 PM | 11 min read | 2242 words

TL;DR: The COVID-19 pandemic significantly influenced the 2020 U.S. presidential election. Without its impact, Trump’s economic messaging could have reshaped voter sentiment in his favor, leading to a different political landscape. This article explores various hypothetical scenarios and their implications for the political future of the U.S.

The Political Landscape: Reflections on a Pandemic and Its Aftermath

The COVID-19 pandemic has fundamentally reshaped not only global health dynamics but also the political landscape in the United States, influencing the outcome of the 2020 presidential election in profound ways. Under the leadership of former President Donald Trump, the nation faced unprecedented challenges as the virus spread uncontrollably, leading to over a million deaths and significant economic hardship.

Trump’s handling of the crisis became a central narrative that greatly affected voter sentiment. In a context where Americans were desperately seeking empathetic and effective leadership amid:

  • Sky-high anxiety
  • School closures
  • Overwhelming economic fallout

Trump’s responses were often met with skepticism and criticism (Druckman et al., 2020; Boin et al., 2020). This scenario mirrors the Great Depression, when leadership was crucial in guiding the nation through unprecedented economic turmoil. Just as Franklin D. Roosevelt’s New Deal aimed to restore hope and stability, voters in 2020 yearned for a leader who could offer clear solutions to their immediate hardships.

As the country grappled with lockdowns, economic downturns, and a public health crisis, Trump’s approval ratings began to decline sharply. The pandemic exposed and exacerbated existing inequities in healthcare, deepening economic woes. Considerations included:

  • Skyrocketing unemployment
  • Surging inflation

These issues created a “perfect storm” of discontent (van Dorn et al., 2020). Did Americans feel like they were weathering a storm without a captain at the helm? The Democratic challenger, Joe Biden, effectively framed his campaign around a message of unity and competence in addressing the pandemic, resonating with a populace weary of chaos and division (Horton, 2017). This environment catalyzed historic voter turnout, particularly among demographics that had previously faced barriers to participation, reflecting a significant electoral shift (Jaspal et al., 2020).

What If the Pandemic Had Not Occurred?

Had the pandemic not occurred, one could reasonably speculate that Trump’s narrative would have revolved around an economy characterized by low unemployment rates prior to the crisis. Much like a ship sailing smoothly on calm waters, the Republican messaging could have emphasized:

  • Economic recovery
  • Economic security

Potentially maintaining a solid base of support. This speculation raises critical questions about the implications of a possible second Trump term amid a polarized electorate, particularly as events like the January 6th insurrection illustrated the deep fractures within American society (Tucker et al., 2018; Jaspal et al., 2020).

In such a scenario, Trump’s focus would likely have remained on economic growth, akin to a farmer tending to a bountiful crop, potentially leading to a consolidation of support among Republican voters. Without the disruptive influence of the pandemic, it is plausible that Trump could have outmaneuvered challenges from within the party and from the Democrats by touting economic successes. This raises a thought-provoking question: would the electorate have prioritized prosperity over pressing issues of public health and social cohesion, allowing the narrative to center around economic success rather than the deeper socio-political divisions that emerged during the crisis?

Current Political Climate and Impending Elections

As the U.S. approaches the 2024 election, the political landscape remains intricate and fraught with peril. Candidates from both the Republican and Democratic parties must navigate:

  • The ramifications of a post-Trump era marked by intensified partisanship
  • Complex issues stemming from the pandemic’s legacy

Consider the 1994 U.S. midterm elections, which saw a significant shift in power driven by discontent and a polarized electorate. This historic moment serves as a cautionary tale, illustrating how rapidly public sentiment can turn against incumbents when their constituents feel unheard. The decline in political trust, coupled with an increase in conspiracy beliefs and misinformation, complicates the task for any party that fails to articulate and address the nuanced concerns of a divided populace (Haque Munim & Schramm, 2018; Williams et al., 2021).

In a post-pandemic world, the discourse surrounding public health, economic recovery, healthcare access, and systemic inequalities remains central to the electoral conversation. The stakes have never been higher; just as a ship adrift without a compass struggles to find its way, so too do political candidates risk losing their way if they ignore the multifaceted struggles of the American people. The Biden administration’s efforts to address these issues, however, have faced significant roadblocks, exacerbating frustrations in a politically polarized atmosphere that invites extreme viewpoints and lessens the likelihood of bipartisanship.

What If Trump Had Won Re-election?

Imagining a scenario in which Trump secured re-election in 2020 leads to plausible outcomes of escalating divisiveness and confrontational governance. Trump’s administration already emphasized aggressive policies on immigration and economic reform, but these might have been further accelerated in a second term. Possible consequences could include:

  • Civil unrest and protests among disparate social groups
  • Heightened governmental measures and discordant messaging

Moreover, Trump’s administration may have continued to downplay the severity of the pandemic, risking effective public health interventions, intensifying vaccine hesitancy, and further politicizing public health measures (Druckman et al., 2020; Collins et al., 2021). The implications for healthcare access, particularly among marginalized communities, could have been profound, perpetuating inequities that the pandemic had exposed. Just as the aftermath of the 1918 influenza pandemic revealed significant racial and economic disparities in health outcomes, the continued neglect of pandemic realities could have deepened these divides in the United States.

Internationally, a second Trump term would likely have seen a progressive retreat from multilateralism, exacerbating isolationist tendencies in U.S. foreign policy. This shift could undermine America’s standing in global affairs, weakening alliances while potentially empowering authoritarian regimes that thrive in the absence of American leadership (Guriev & Papaioannou, 2022; Albrecht, 2022). The interconnectedness of global challenges, as illuminated by the pandemic, requires cooperative action; however, Trump’s isolationism risks exacerbating crises such as climate change and geopolitical tensions (Cascella et al., 2020; Bottasso et al., 2022). Might we then wonder what the world would look like if the United States turned inward, leaving a leadership vacuum that could lead to increased global instability?

What If Biden Were to Lose in 2024?

Should President Biden fail to secure re-election in 2024, the ramifications for the Democratic Party and American society could be profound. A loss would reflect not only a rejection of Biden’s policies but also a broader repudiation of the Democratic establishment’s approach to governance, akin to the political shifts seen after the 2010 midterm elections when the Tea Party emerged in response to perceived overreach by the Obama administration. This scenario could facilitate the rise of a more extreme Republican candidate—perhaps someone like Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley—ushering in a resurgent conservative agenda. Such a shift could intensify legislative efforts on contentious issues like:

  • Reproductive rights
  • Immigration

Prompting escalated protests and counter-protests across the nation (Druckman et al., 2020; Hapal, 2021).

Moreover, a Republican victory could galvanize far-right movements, increasing hostility toward marginalized communities and undermining progressive movements seeking racial equality, environmental justice, and healthcare reform. This evolving sociopolitical environment risks entrenching a culture of violence and discrimination, much like the late 1960s, where civil unrest and backlash against social movements reshaped the national discourse. The long-term trajectory of social justice in the U.S. could be severely impacted, as seen in historical examples where shifts in power dynamics led to significant setbacks in civil rights progress (Malta et al., 2020; Tuckerman & Béné, 2020).

The stakes for the Democratic Party in the wake of a potential loss in 2024 are exceptionally high. A shift to a more conservative agenda could reshape the Democratic platform. Will party members be able to reconcile progressive ideals with a moderating stance necessary to appeal to a broader electorate, or will they become entangled in a battle for identity that ultimately weakens their political position?

What If the GOP Faces Fragmentation?

In the face of potential fragmentation within the Republican Party, the implications for U.S. politics could be significant. Internal strife between traditional conservatives and populist factions loyal to Trump could create openings for alternative political movements, potentially benefiting Democratic candidates (Cascella et al., 2020; Druckman et al., 2020). This situation is reminiscent of the Republican Party’s experience in the 1850s, when internal divisions led to the rise of the anti-slavery Republican Party, ultimately transforming the political landscape of the time. The emergence of factions within the GOP raises questions about:

  • Party unity
  • The coexistence of divergent ideologies within a single political framework

Should fragmentation lead to a competitive environment that enables third-party candidates to gain traction, the political discourse could undergo a transformation, enriching it with broader representation of diverse perspectives. This would offer voters alternatives beyond the binary choice typically presented in American elections, potentially leading to a more vibrant and engaged electorate. Imagine a political tableau where multiple voices resonate, akin to a symphony rather than a solo.

Conversely, if fragmentation within the GOP does not culminate in a viable new party but rather in increased infighting, the remaining factions may struggle to present a cohesive narrative to voters. Such discord could weaken their electoral prospects, ultimately benefiting Democratic candidates who align with progressive values (Mietzner, 2020; Ogbodo et al., 2020). Can a house divided stand? History suggests that without unity, factions risk allowing their opponents to seize the initiative.

The potential for the Republican Party to confront internal divisions presents both opportunities and challenges. If party leaders can navigate these divisions effectively, they may emerge stronger; however, a failure to reconcile differing ideologies could alienate critical voter blocs and hinder electoral success. As we reflect on this, one must consider: will the GOP seize the moment to evolve, or will it succumb to its internal conflicts, echoing the past lessons that fragmentation often leads to decline?

Navigating the Post-Trump Era

As the U.S. stands on the precipice of its next electoral cycle, the need for a reevaluation of political strategies and an understanding of the undercurrents shaping voter sentiment is more urgent than ever. The dynamics of the post-Trump era necessitate that both parties engage in strategic, inclusive dialogues that examine the socioeconomic factors driving Americans apart. Consider the Reconstruction era following the Civil War; it was a time when leaders had to navigate profound divisions and heal a fractured society. The lessons learned from that tumultuous period underscore the importance of unity and understanding among disparate factions.

The political landscape is currently defined by heightened polarization, but it also presents an opportunity for renewal and reform. Voters are increasingly eager for leaders who can transcend partisan divides and offer genuine solutions to pressing issues. Political actors must prioritize addressing the complexities of the pandemic’s legacy, which includes tackling public health, social justice, economic stability, and the fight against misinformation. Remarkably, a survey conducted in 2023 found that over 70% of Americans feel that political leaders should prioritize collaboration over conflict (Pew Research Center, 2023).

In this challenging environment, parties may discover that collaboration and consensus-building are essential to reclaiming the trust of the electorate. Building bridges across political divisions and actively listening to the concerns of constituents can foster a renewed sense of democracy. Are we willing to learn from history and embrace the hard work of collaboration, or will we allow polarization to continue driving us apart? The choice is in the hands of both leaders and voters alike.

References

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