Muslim World Report

India's Port Closure Sparks Tensions with Bangladesh Amid Tariffs

Dr. Anthony Lindsay | Apr 22, 2025 10:31 AM | 6 min read | 1171 words

TL;DR: India’s closure of its ports and airports to Bangladesh marks a significant escalation in regional tensions, exacerbated by U.S. tariffs on Bangladeshi goods. This move raises concerns about shifting geopolitical alliances in South Asia, particularly as Bangladesh deepens ties with China. The potential fallout could disrupt trade, alter power dynamics, and necessitate strategic realignments.

India’s Strategic Shift: A New Era of Regional Tensions

On April 8, 2023, India’s government enacted a controversial decision to officially close its ports and airports to Bangladesh for cargo trans-shipment. This action represents a significant escalation in regional tensions and underscores the complex geopolitical dynamics at play, particularly as Bangladesh appears to be strengthening its ties with China. Framed as a strategic maneuver to counter perceived encroachments on India’s influence in South Asia—especially in its northeastern territories—this development raises serious concerns about the rising nationalism and jingoism permeating Indian politics.

The impact of closing trade routes is profound, depriving Bangladesh of access to essential economic lifelines at a time when the nation is already grappling with the ramifications of President Trump’s imposition of steep tariffs—36% on Bangladeshi goods—which have severely strained the Bangladeshi economy (Hussain & Naqvi, 2024).

Key Effects of India’s Port Closure:

  • Blocked transit routes: Creates unprecedented challenges for Bangladeshi exporters.
  • Strained bilateral relations: Threatens India’s relationships with neighboring countries.
  • Potential for regional instability: Could irrevocably shift the balance of power in South Asia.

India’s decision can be interpreted within the broader global trend of rising nationalism and protectionism, characterized by a prioritization of self-interest over collaborative frameworks (Ganti, 2014; Hettne, 2005). By asserting dominance in the Bay of Bengal—an area critical for both trade and military positioning—India risks alienating regional actors and provoking retaliatory measures. This disruption threatens not only the economic stability of Bangladesh but could also unravel the fragile fabric of regional cooperation in South Asia.

The Geopolitical Landscape: Bangladesh and China

In light of India’s recent port closure, the potential for Bangladesh to formalize its alignment with China looms larger than ever. Should this happen, the geopolitical landscape in South Asia could shift dramatically, with far-reaching implications. A formal alignment with China would likely attract increased investments from Beijing into Bangladesh, further entrenching economic ties and strengthening Bangladesh’s leverage against Indian dominance.

China’s Strategic Moves in the Region:

  • Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): Enhances trade and infrastructure development in Bangladesh (Islam, 2025).
  • Regional Influence: Expands its role in the Bay of Bengal, prompting neighboring countries to reassess their positions.

Should Bangladesh formalize its partnership with China, India might feel compelled to adopt military posturing or intensify its diplomatic efforts to reclaim influence in the region.

Possible Indian Responses:

  • Military Posturing: Could ignite a regional arms race.
  • Diplomatic Intensity: Might exacerbate existing border tensions (Kumar, 2018).

The economic ramifications for India could also be severe. A burgeoning Bangladeshi economy, supported by Chinese investment, could displace India’s historical influence in the region.

Key Questions for India:

  • Alternative Strategies: What might India adopt to counteract this potential economic setback?
  • Aggressive Posturing vs. Compromise: How will India navigate its nationalist policies while maintaining regional relationships?

What If: The U.S. Factor

As Bangladesh’s potential pivot toward China unfolds, India may contemplate reinforcing its trade and diplomatic relations with U.S. allies. This strategic alignment could serve both India’s economic interests and the broader agenda of U.S. strategic goals in the region.

However, this leads to another ‘What If’ scenario: what might happen if this alignment exacerbates regional tensions?

Potential Regional Outcomes:

  • Deepening Divisions: Reinforces existing cleavages among regional powers.
  • Cold War-like Scenario: Countries like Bangladesh may solidify alliances with China and other non-Western nations (Stubbs, 2008).

India’s strategic shifts may appear advantageous in the short term, but they could result in long-term consequences that challenge the integrity of South Asian unity.

Navigating this multifaceted geopolitical landscape requires strategic maneuvers from all stakeholders involved, especially India, Bangladesh, China, and the United States.

  • Diplomatic Engagement: Initiate dialogue to alleviate tensions and forge mutual agreements.
  • Soft Power Projection: Utilize cultural and economic initiatives to cultivate goodwill.
  • Multilateral Forums: Explore platforms that include China and Bangladesh for diplomacy.

For Bangladesh:

  • Diversify Economic Partnerships: Strengthen ties with regional actors beyond India and China.
  • Invest in Domestic Industries: Reduce dependency on external trade routes (Daley & Biewener, 2003).

For China:

  • Economic and Military Support: Secure a foothold in South Asia while engaging India in dialogue.

For the United States:

  • Mediation Role: Foster dialogue among South Asian nations to stabilize the region while advancing its strategic interests (Antolik, 1994).

The evolving situation in South Asia portrays a delicate interplay of power dynamics, influenced by both historical grievances and contemporary geopolitical maneuvers.

For India, the risk of losing influence in Bangladesh and the broader region presents a significant challenge. A realignment of Bangladesh with China could shift economic power dynamics.

Major Risks for India:

  • Regional Arms Race: Escalation in military presence could prompt an arms buildup in neighboring countries.
  • Diminished Regional Cooperation: The need for cooperative frameworks is critical for stability.

Opportunities exist for India to strengthen trade ties with Bangladesh and other regional players.

Future Possibilities:

  • Multilateral Trade Agreements: Could foster regional integration and reduce reliance on dominant players like China.

The role of external powers such as China and the U.S. will be crucial in either exacerbating or alleviating tensions.

Looking Ahead: Navigating Potential Futures

In navigating this evolving landscape, all stakeholders must weigh their actions carefully; immediate interests must be balanced against long-term implications.

Key Questions for Each Stakeholder:

  • India: How can India engage constructively with Bangladesh to foster cooperation?
  • Bangladesh: What strategies can enhance its sovereignty and resilience against external pressures?
  • China: How can China promote dialogue to create a stable environment?
  • United States: What steps can the U.S. take to mediate and foster regional stability?

The interconnected nature of geopolitical relationships in South Asia will shape the future of regional stability. Each stakeholder must strive for constructive dialogue and collaboration, recognizing the complexities of alliances. The stakes for regional cooperation and stability are undeniably high, making this a pivotal moment in South Asian geopolitics.

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