Muslim World Report

El Salvador's Nayib Bukele: Popularity Amidst Authoritarianism

Dr. Anthony Lindsay | Apr 17, 2025 10:33 AM | 6 min read | 1088 words

TL;DR: Nayib Bukele’s authoritarian measures in El Salvador have drastically reduced crime, leading to increased popularity. However, these actions raise significant concerns about the erosion of democratic norms, potentially paving the way for similar trends in other nations. The international community faces challenges in choosing between engagement and isolation, with far-reaching implications for global democracy and human rights.

The Transformation of El Salvador: Authoritarianism in the Name of Safety

Nayib Bukele, the President of El Salvador, has ushered in a critical transformation in a nation long beset by violent crime and political instability. Since taking office in 2019, Bukele has adopted a series of authoritarian measures aimed at dismantling powerful gangs like MS-13 and Barrio 18. His approach—characterized by:

  • Mass arrests
  • Aggressive policing
  • Zero-tolerance stance towards gang activity

has resulted in a significant decline in crime rates. El Salvador, once synonymous with violence and fear, is now perceived by many citizens as a safer place to live. This drastic shift has catapulted Bukele into a position of unprecedented popularity, elevating him to a status akin to national heroism in the eyes of many Salvadorans.

However, his methods have raised serious concerns about the erosion of democratic norms. Experts like Adam Isacson from the Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA) warn that Bukele’s governance exemplifies a troubling global trend: the rise of elected autocrats who undermine political institutions in the name of security (Isacson, 2023).

Exploring the ‘What Ifs’: Potential Scenarios for El Salvador and Beyond

What If Bukele’s Model Becomes a Template for Other Nations?

Should Bukele’s authoritarian model be deemed successful in addressing crime, other nations facing similar security dilemmas may look to adopt analogous strategies. Countries in Central America, the Caribbean, and parts of South America, where gang violence and drug trafficking pose severe threats, could see a shift toward authoritarian governance as a means of ensuring public safety.

Potentially Inspired Nations:

  • Honduras
  • Guatemala

If citizens in these countries grow increasingly frustrated with high crime rates and ineffective governments, they may support leaders who promise similar aggressive tactics against crime, even at the expense of democratic frameworks. This scenario could lead to a regional trend where the erosion of democratic norms becomes normalized under the guise of emergency governance.

Furthermore, if this model spreads, the implications could be far-reaching. A wave of authoritarianism could threaten the stability of democratic institutions globally, as leaders in regions with similar socio-political upheaval embrace these tactics. Such governance, once seen as a last resort, may inadvertently gain legitimacy, endangering human rights and civil liberties across multiple nations.

What If International Actors Choose to Engage or Isolate El Salvador?

The international community faces a critical decision: should it engage diplomatically with Bukele’s administration or impose sanctions? Engaging with El Salvador could provide an opportunity to influence Bukele’s policies toward more democratic reforms while addressing security concerns. However, the complexities surrounding such engagement are profound.

Challenges of Engagement:

  • Historical precedents demonstrate that diplomatic efforts can yield mixed results, particularly with authoritarian regimes.
  • Regimes like those in Algeria have managed to resist democratic pressures through pseudodemocratization (Volpi, 2013).

Conversely, implementing sanctions may backfire, further entrenching Bukele’s popularity as he casts external pressures as imperialist attempts to undermine a sovereign government. Thus, the reliance on punitive measures could alienate citizens, creating a backlash that solidifies Bukele’s support amid claims of external interference.

Global Implications: The consequences of this engagement-or-isolation dilemma extend beyond El Salvador, influencing other states observing the international response toward authoritarianism.

What If the Erosion of Democracy Continues Unabated?

The ongoing discourse surrounding Bukele’s administration raises essential questions regarding the future of democracy. If his model proves effective in combating crime, other nations may gravitate towards adopting similar authoritarian measures. For instance, countries like Honduras and Guatemala could lead citizens to support leaders promising rigorous security measures at the expense of democratic frameworks (Cawthra & Luckman, 2004).

As this trend unfolds, the ramifications could extend well beyond the immediate regional context, potentially dissolving core democratic values globally.

The Intersection of Security and Authoritarianism

Bukele’s governance reflects a broader narrative playing out globally, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic, where governments have adopted emergency powers that infringe on civil liberties (Edgell et al., 2021; Greitens, 2020). Understanding the implications of Bukele’s rule necessitates a comprehensive analysis of similar authoritarian responses worldwide, signaling a need for vigilance in protecting human rights and democratic norms.

If these patterns continue, the normalization of authoritarian responses could further entrench the belief that security dictates governance, prioritizing order over freedom. As the global landscape shifts, Bukele’s policies may emerge as a significant reference point for governance strategies worldwide.

Strategic Maneuvers: Pathways for El Salvador and the International Community

Given the complex dynamics surrounding Bukele’s regime, several pathways exist for various stakeholders:

For Bukele and His Administration:

  • Maintain public trust while navigating growing international criticism.
  • Enhance transparency within security operations.
  • Engage in dialogue with civil society to mitigate fears of authoritarianism.

For Opposition Groups and Civil Society:

  • Build coalitions to advocate for democratic principles and human rights.
  • Organize peaceful protests and leverage social media platforms for awareness.

For International Actors:

  • Engage diplomatically with Bukele’s government while supporting civil society initiatives for democratic norms.
  • Provide technical assistance for reform and promote bilateral dialogues on human rights.

Moreover, the international community should develop comprehensive strategies to address the root causes of crime, such as poverty and lack of opportunities. Supporting economic development, education, and health initiatives can help stabilize the nation and contribute to a more resilient democratic society.

In summary, navigating El Salvador’s situation requires nuanced strategies from all players involved. The choices made today will shape the political landscape for El Salvador and set precedents for governance models across the region and beyond. While authoritarianism may offer immediate solutions, the long-term costs to democracy and human rights can be devastating. The challenge remains: can El Salvador find a path that balances safety with the preservation of democratic ideals?

References

Cawthra, G., & Luckman, R. (2004). Governing insecurity: democratic control of military and security establishments in transitional democracies. Choice Reviews Online. https://doi.org/10.5860/choice.41-4292

Edgell, A. B., Lachapelle, J., Lührmann, A., & Maerz, S. F. (2021). Pandemic backsliding: Violations of democratic standards during Covid-19. Social Science & Medicine, 276, 114244. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2021.114244

Greitens, S. C. (2020). Surveillance, Security, and Liberal Democracy in the Post-COVID World. International Organization, 74(4), 763-788. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818320000417

Isacson, A. (2023). Democracy, Security, and Authoritarianism: The Case of El Salvador. Washington Office on Latin America. Retrieved from https://www.wola.org

Volpi, F. (2013). Algeria versus the Arab Spring. Journal of Democracy, 24(3), 55-69. https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2013.0040

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