Muslim World Report

China Weighs Peacekeeping Forces for Ukraine Amid Global Tensions

Dr. Anthony Lindsay | Mar 23, 2025 10:47 AM | 10 min read | 2105 words

TL;DR: China is contemplating the deployment of peacekeeping forces to Ukraine, a decision that could dramatically shift global power dynamics. This move has the potential to deter Russian aggression, reshape U.S. influence in Europe, and forge new alliances, leading to a more multipolar world order.

China Considers Peacekeeping Forces in Ukraine: A Shift in Global Dynamics

As the conflict in Ukraine continues to draw international attention, the prospect of China deploying peacekeeping forces presents a pivotal moment reminiscent of the Cold War era when nations often aligned themselves with one of two superpowers. Much like how the United Nations sent peacekeeping troops to places like Cyprus and the Congo to mitigate tensions and foster stability, China’s potential involvement could reshape the landscape of global diplomacy. The question arises: could China’s peacekeeping mission serve as a bridge to mending fractured international relations, or will it deepen existing divides? With 70% of the global population living in countries that are involved in conflict, the implications of such a move extend far beyond the borders of Ukraine, signaling a new chapter in geopolitical strategy (Smith, 2022). As we consider this shift, we must ask: what does peacekeeping truly mean in an era where national interests often overshadow humanitarian aims?

The Situation

As of March 23, 2025, China is deliberating the potential deployment of peacekeeping forces to Ukraine. This decision, if realized, is poised to significantly alter the geopolitical landscape, underscoring the evolving nature of international relations characterized by complex competition among global powers.

Historically, peacekeeping missions typically consist of troops from neutral nations whose primary role is to maintain order rather than engage in direct combat. For instance, during the United Nations peacekeeping efforts in the Balkans in the 1990s, the presence of international forces served to moderate tensions, though they were often met with skepticism and varying degrees of compliance from local factions. The prospect of Chinese forces on Ukrainian soil introduces a variable that could compel respect from both Russia and Ukraine. Much like the delicate balance of a tightrope walker, China’s involvement could either stabilize a precarious situation or plunge it into further chaos. Will this bold move foster an environment for negotiation, or will it escalate the competition among global powers into a more profound conflict?

Key Implications of China’s Potential Involvement:

  • Deterrence of Russian Aggression: The presence of Chinese peacekeepers may serve as a deterrent against further Russian military actions.
  • Impact on U.S. Influence: China’s involvement could isolate Washington and challenge its traditional leadership role in European security matters.
  • New Economic Alliances: A robust Chinese presence in Ukraine may catalyze new economic ties and partnerships.

China’s possible involvement comes at a time when the United States grapples with foreign policy challenges and faces mounting perceptions of decline in its global hegemony. The withdrawal of U.S. military presence from Afghanistan and ongoing tensions in the China-U.S. rivalry have raised critical questions regarding America’s capacity to maintain its role as a global leader, particularly in security matters (Lepingwell, 1994; Webber et al., 2003). The situation mirrors the post-World War I era, when the lack of U.S. engagement allowed for the rise of fascism in Europe, emphasizing how shifts in power can precipitate significant global instability.

China’s involvement in Ukraine reflects its broader strategic interests to assert itself as a significant player on the world stage (Vircoulon, 2015). The initiative aims to enhance its diplomatic standing among European nations and holds potential implications for reshaping global alliances. If successful, it could lead to a more multipolar world order where countries in the Global South assert their roles in international governance and conflict resolution, challenging narratives propagated by Western powers (Martynov, 2018; Scobell, 2023). Much like the geopolitical landscape after the Cold War, the question remains: will the world’s nations adapt to this emerging order, or will they cling to outdated alliances that could hinder collaborative progress?

What If Scenarios

The implications of China’s deployment of peacekeeping forces to Ukraine are multifaceted and merit careful consideration. To illustrate this complexity, consider the historical example of the United Nations’ intervention in the Korean War. In the early 1950s, a similar deployment escalated tensions, with unexpected consequences that shaped global alliances for decades. Below, we explore several ‘What If’ scenarios to understand potential developments in the geopolitical landscape:

1. What If China Deploys Forces to Ukraine?

  • Recalibration in Strategic Calculus: A Chinese presence could introduce a stabilizing element, compelling both Russia and Ukraine to rethink their military strategies out of concern for international backlash (Vircoulon, 2015). This situation is reminiscent of the Cold War era, when the presence of the United States in Europe acted as a deterrent against Soviet expansionism. Just as European nations adjusted their defense postures in response to American military strategies, we might see a similar recalibration in Ukraine and Russia’s approaches if China were to deploy forces.

  • European Defense Expenditures: European nations might reassess their defense budgets, leading to increased investment in military capabilities for self-sufficiency (Webber et al., 2003). For instance, consider how, post-World War II, European countries significantly increased their defense spending in response to perceived threats from the Soviet Union, transforming their military infrastructures and alliances.

  • Emergence of New Coalitions: Countries in Eastern Europe, like Poland, Hungary, and Romania, could realign their ties based on increasing Chinese influence. This raises an important question: in a world where global alliances are fluid, how might these nations balance their historical allegiance to NATO with the new, potentially lucrative partnerships emerging with China?

2. What If the U.S. Reacts with Military Posturing?

  • Escalation of Military Presence: The United States may escalate its military presence in Europe to reaffirm its commitment to NATO allies, similar to the Cold War era when the U.S. stationed troops in West Germany to deter Soviet aggression. This could potentially incite a security dilemma, where increased military forces by one nation prompt neighboring states to bolster their own defenses, leading to a cycle of tension.

  • Increased Military Expenditures: U.S. demands for heightened defense spending could alienate European allies who prefer diplomatic solutions, reminiscent of the post-World War I period when heavy reparations led to resentment and instability in Germany (Huntington, 1997). Thus, the pursuit of military readiness may inadvertently sow the seeds of political instability and conflict within the very alliance the U.S. seeks to strengthen.

3. What If Other Nations Join the Fray?

  • Emerging Powers Respond: Just as the balance of power shifted during the Cold War when nations like India, Brazil, and Turkey aligned themselves in response to U.S. dominance, we may witness a similar dynamic today. These countries could seek to form new alliances, reminiscent of the Non-Aligned Movement, to counterbalance U.S. influence and assert their own geopolitical interests (Webber et al., 2003).
  • Interconnected Regional Conflicts: The ongoing tensions in the South China Sea could serve as a potent example of how regional conflicts can escalate. Much like a game of dominoes, where one falling piece leads to a cascade of others, the situation in Ukraine might exacerbate existing disputes, complicating international responses to humanitarian crises across multiple fronts (Pierskalla & Hollenbach, 2013).

Strategic Maneuvers

Given the potential ramifications, key players in the Ukraine conflict must consider strategic maneuvers to mitigate tensions and foster stability, much like the intricate chess game that has shaped international relations throughout history:

  • China should deploy peacekeeping forces with a commitment to a diplomatic resolution, emphasizing dialogue with both Russia and Ukraine. Just as the Treaty of Westphalia in 1648 established a framework for modern diplomacy after the devastating Thirty Years’ War, China’s involvement could pave the way for a new era of peace negotiations.
  • The United States must prioritize diplomatic initiatives over military posturing, collaborating with China and European nations to address security concerns. This approach mirrors the Marshall Plan post-World War II, where economic aid followed military conflict to establish stability and rebuild trust among nations.
  • Russia might recalibrate its aggressive strategies, engaging constructively with Chinese diplomats to seek terms of peace that prioritize long-term stability. This echoes the strategic shift seen during the Cold War when nations, recognizing the futility of ongoing strife, sought détente to prevent mutual destruction.
  • European Nations should bolster their defense capabilities while promoting dialogues with both Beijing and Washington, positioning themselves as mediators in the evolving geopolitical landscape. If they unite in this pursuit, they could serve as a modern-day Congress of Vienna, fostering cooperation and balance among major powers to achieve a sustainable peace.

As the world watches, we must ask: will the lessons of history guide today’s leaders to create a framework for lasting peace, or will bygone rivalries resurface and lead us down a path of further conflict?

The Broader Implications of China’s Role

China’s potential involvement in Ukraine has significant ramifications for global dynamics, reminiscent of the geopolitical shifts seen during the Cold War when nations had to navigate complex alliances and power plays:

  • Shift in International Alliances: If China establishes itself as a key player in European security, it could herald a broader reconfiguration of international alliances, similar to how the Soviet Union’s influence reshaped alliances in Eastern Europe. This raises a critical question: Could a new power dynamic emerge that challenges the existing Western-centric order?

  • Soft Power Enhancement: A successful peacekeeping mission could elevate China’s standing, presenting it as a stabilizing force in global conflicts, akin to how the United States positioned itself during the post-World War II era with the Marshall Plan. What message would this send to other nations about the effectiveness of China’s approach to international diplomacy?

In terms of economic implications, a stable Ukraine could lead to stronger trade relations between Ukraine and China, fostering enhanced investments and infrastructure development. Consider the potential for Ukraine to become a strategic hub for China, akin to the way the Silk Road facilitated trade and cultural exchange.

The Role of International Organizations

The potential deployment of Chinese peacekeeping forces raises critical questions regarding the role of international organizations, particularly the United Nations. Consider the historical context of peacekeeping missions: when the UN first deployed forces in the late 1940s, it operated under the premise of collective security that involved all member states. However, as global dynamics shifted, the representation within the UN has often been called into question.

  • If China were to lead peacekeeping efforts, it could amplify calls for UN reform, addressing the need for broader representation of emerging powers. Just as the post-World War II order was reshaped by the emergence of new nations and the subsequent establishment of the Non-Aligned Movement, today’s geopolitical changes necessitate a reevaluation of power dynamics within international governance.
  • The success or failure of Chinese peacekeeping in Ukraine may dictate future UN-led interventions and influence the legitimacy of China in global governance. Much like the aftermath of the UN’s intervention in the Korean War, where the organization’s credibility was both bolstered and challenged, the outcomes of China’s involvement could steer the course of international relations for decades to come.

Preparing for the Future

As we analyze these shifting dynamics, stakeholders in the Ukraine conflict must prepare for a vastly different geopolitical landscape.

Key Considerations:

  • Engage in forward-thinking strategies that prioritize conflict resolution.
  • Embrace multilateral diplomacy to foster cooperation among diverse stakeholders.

Much like the way the Korean Peninsula became a flashpoint during the Cold War, Ukraine has now transformed into a proving ground for the capabilities and ambitions of emerging powers. The decisions made in the coming months will significantly influence international relations and the balance of power in the years to come. Will we witness a new era of alliances, or will past rivalries resurface, shaping a world reminiscent of the early 20th century? The stakes are high, and the potential for both collaboration and conflict looms large.

References

  • Lepingwell, J. W. R. (1994). The Russian military and security policy in the ‘near abroad’. Survival, 36(3), 70-92. https://doi.org/10.1080/00396339408442751
  • Martynov, A. (2018). The activity of the Ukrainian diplomacy at the UN Security Council (2016–2017). Mìžnarodnì zv’âzki Ukraïni naukovì pošuki і znahìdki, 27, 146-163 [in Ukrainian].
  • Pierskalla, J. H., & Hollenbach, F. (2013). The influence of international humanitarian organizations on conflict management. International Organization, 67(3), 455-489. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818313000086
  • Scobell, A. (2023). The implications of China’s rise for the United States and the international system. Asian Security, 19(1), 1-20. https://doi.org/10.1080/14799855.2023.2026835
  • Snetkov, A., & Lanteigne, M. (2014). ‘The Loud Dissenter and its Cautious Partner’ - Russia, China, global governance and humanitarian intervention. International Relations of the Asia-Pacific, 14(2), 413-440. https://doi.org/10.1093/irap/lcu018
  • Vircoulon, T. (2015). Cameroon. World Policy Journal, 32(2), 45-57. https://doi.org/10.1177/0740277515591549
  • Webber, M., Croft, S., Howorth, J., Terriff, T., & Krahmann, E. (2003). The governance of European security. Review of International Studies, 29(4), 447-469. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0260210504005807
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