Muslim World Report

Modi's Absence at G-7 Summit Signals Deteriorating Canada-India Ties

Dr. Anthony Lindsay | Jun 6, 2025 10:21 AM | 7 min read | 1425 words

TL;DR: Prime Minister Modi’s exclusion from the G-7 Summit underscores growing tensions between India and Canada, linked to serious allegations against India. This situation poses challenges for bilateral relations and the cohesion of the G-7 coalition.

Frayed Ties: India’s Modi Excluded from G-7 Summit Amid Diplomatic Tensions with Canada

The recent exclusion of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi from the G-7 Summit in Canada signifies a pivotal shift in international relations, especially between India and Canada. This diplomatic rift stems from serious allegations, suggesting that Indian intelligence was involved in the assassination of a Canadian citizen on Canadian soil. If substantiated, these claims could seriously damage bilateral relations and reveal fractures within the G-7 coalition itself.

Historically, the G-7 has positioned itself as a defender of democratic values and human rights, but this incident raises troubling questions about its coherence and commitment to those principles.

Modi’s exclusion is emblematic of a broader trend, as nations reevaluate their diplomatic ties and foundational values. The Canadian government’s stance is significantly influenced by its substantial Sikh diaspora, which has been vocally critical of Modi’s administration due to:

  • Controversial policies toward Sikhs and other minorities (Chhachhi, 2020).
  • Public sentiment that reveals 77% of Canadians either displaying ambivalence or outright hostility towards India.

This growing discontent is reshaping political discourse in Canada and could alter the West’s approach to one of its most strategic partnerships (Mosley, 2021).

Ramifications of Modi’s Exclusion

The implications of Modi’s exclusion extend beyond the immediate bilateral context. They challenge the G-7’s unified authority on pressing global challenges, such as:

  • Climate change
  • Trade

This situation raises critical questions about India’s emerging role within global governance structures. If this exclusion signals a decline in trust from Western allies, India may pivot toward authoritarian regimes, complicating the global power landscape. Such a shift would undermine the G-7’s narrative of promoting democracy and provide Modi’s government with justification for further suppressing dissent in the name of national security (Siddiqui, 2021).

As nations monitor this unfolding diplomatic crisis, the challenge lies in navigating the complex interplay of domestic politics, international relations, and foundational democratic principles. In an era marked by rising authoritarianism, Modi’s exclusion serves as a flashpoint — potentially redefining geopolitical alliances and tensions in the coming years.

Potential Realignments: What If Modi Turns Towards Authoritarian Allies?

One plausible scenario is that Modi may respond to his exclusion by seeking to realign India’s diplomatic posture toward authoritarian states, such as Russia and China. This pivot could lead to:

  • Strengthened economic and military support from regimes that share similar governance styles.
  • A significant departure from India’s historical non-alignment policy, which has emphasized engagement with democratic nations (Goldsmith, Horiuchi, & Matush, 2021).

This potential realignment may lead to deeper military collaborations with authoritarian regimes, raising pressing human rights concerns both within India and across the region. By leaning into these new alliances, Modi might justify further curtailing freedoms at home, framing these actions as necessary measures against perceived external threats (Das, 2020).

Furthermore, as India gravitates toward authoritarian states, tensions in South Asia could escalate, particularly regarding India’s traditional adversaries. The geopolitical landscape risks becoming increasingly polarized, with alignment to either Western democracies or authoritarian regimes dictating:

  • National security policies
  • Humanitarian aid
  • Diplomatic relations (Dieter & Biedermann, 2022)

Such polarization could jeopardize regional stability and complicate the G-7’s ability to influence outcomes in the region.

A Harder Stance: What If Canada Intensifies Its Diplomatic Approach Against India?

A second potential outcome is that Canada may adopt a more sustained and robust diplomatic stance against India, going beyond symbolic gestures like Modi’s exclusion from the G-7 Summit. This hardline position may manifest through:

  • Economic sanctions
  • Suspension of trade agreements
  • Increased scrutiny of Indian diplomatic activity within Canada.

If Canada pursues such an approach, it could galvanize other Western nations concerned about India’s internal governance and treatment of minorities (Smet, 2020).

However, a more aggressive diplomatic posture from Canada carries risks:

  • It could provoke retaliatory actions from India, escalating tensions and threatening existing trade and economic relationships.
  • This standoff might hinder cooperation on global issues like climate change and counter-terrorism, where collaborative action is essential (Torri, 2019).

Navigating the balance between domestic pressures and a coherent foreign policy strategy presents formidable challenges for Canadian leaders, especially given potential electoral implications of engaging with diasporic communities opposed to Modi’s rule. While a hardening of Canada’s stance might resonate with domestic audiences—particularly as the Sikh community rallies around this issue—it risks alienating Indian nationals and businesses in Canada, who may view these actions as unwarranted aggression against their homeland.

In this context, Canada’s hardening stance against India may catalyze significant changes in Indian governance or lead to a protracted diplomatic crisis, with implications extending far beyond the immediate political landscape.

The G-7’s Internal Discord: What If Member Nations Remain Divided?

Another scenario involves ongoing divisions within the G-7 regarding how to respond to Modi’s exclusion. If member nations cannot present a united front, it could embolden Modi to adopt more aggressive foreign policy measures without fearing a unified Western backlash. This internal discord would undermine the G-7’s authority and create a geopolitical vacuum that authoritarian states might exploit (Um, 2006).

The disunity within the G-7 is further complicated by the varying economic and political interests of member nations regarding India. For example, Germany and France, which have substantial trade relations with India, may be reluctant to fully align with Canada’s tougher stance, creating a tug-of-war that challenges the G-7’s credibility as a platform for addressing global issues (Panzano, 2023).

Additionally, continued divisions could pose challenges for the coalition’s ability to respond to upcoming global issues, such as climate change and security cooperation. A cohesive strategy becomes vital given the pressing nature of these challenges, and disunity would hamper effective efforts to address them.

If the G-7 remains fragmented, the consequences could extend beyond the political landscape, fostering a disjointed approach to international governance that undermines democratic principles and compromises collective efforts to tackle pressing global challenges.

Strategic Maneuvers: Navigating a Complex Diplomatic Terrain

In light of Modi’s exclusion from the G-7 Summit, various strategic maneuvers are possible for all parties involved:

For Canada, the initial step may involve consolidating support from like-minded countries to maintain diplomatic pressure on India. This could include:

  • Leveraging its position within international organizations to spotlight human rights abuses.
  • Rallying support from nations sharing concerns about Modi’s regime.

By framing Modi’s exclusion as a principled stance on human rights, Canada could solidify its moral authority while addressing domestic electoral pressures (Chhachhi, 2020).

For the G-7, an effective strategy could blend engagement with India while maintaining pressure for democratic governance. This dual approach would affirm the coalition’s commitment to democratic values and potentially facilitate reforms in India through:

  • Economic incentives
  • Constructive dialogue

India must reassess its foreign policy in light of these developments and engage in diplomatic outreach to clarify its position regarding the allegations against its government. By fostering transparent dialogue and emphasizing its commitment to democratic principles, India could work to rebuild trust with Western allies.

While the complex diplomatic landscape is fraught with challenges, each player has the opportunity to shape their roles within this increasingly polarized world. The ongoing situation underscores the necessity of advocating for narratives that prioritize human rights and civil liberties above strategic alliances rooted in economic interests. Upholding democratic values in international relations remains a pivotal challenge, requiring a strategic approach, solid alliances, and a steadfast commitment to democracy and human rights.

In this intricate web of geopolitical dynamics, the actions of individual states will have lasting implications for global governance and international relations, propelling the world toward a future defined increasingly by either authoritarianism or democratic principles.

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