Muslim World Report

India's Port Closure Signals Shift in South Asian Geopolitics

Dr. Anthony Lindsay | Apr 28, 2025 10:14 PM | 7 min read | 1378 words

TL;DR: India’s recent closure of its ports to Bangladesh marks a significant shift in South Asian geopolitics, driven by rising tensions and Bangladesh’s growing ties with China. This blockade isolates Bangladesh economically and shifts the regional balance of power, potentially leading to increased competition, diplomatic outreach, and strategic realignments among the involved nations.

The Situation: India’s Port Closure and Its Global Implications

On April 8, 2023, India executed a significant geopolitical maneuver by terminating Bangladesh’s access to its ports and airports for cargo trans-shipment. This strategic decision was publicly justified by the Indian government as a response to:

  • Bangladesh’s expanding ties with China
  • Vocal criticisms of India’s management of regional disputes, particularly in the Northeast

However, the ramifications of this maritime blockade reach beyond logistical concerns; it represents a calculated assertion of India’s dominance over its neighbors, highlighting a stark demarcation of its sphere of influence in a rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape.

Economic Isolation of Bangladesh

The timing of this blockade is crucial, as Bangladesh faces mounting economic challenges exacerbated by external pressures. Noteworthy among these pressures are tariffs imposed by the United States, which reached as high as 36% during the Trump administration (Sahoo, 2013). The closure of vital trade routes effectively isolates Bangladesh, which heavily relies on India and other regional players for essential trade links.

As noted by Rahman and Ara (2020), the garment industry—one of Bangladesh’s primary economic drivers—is particularly vulnerable. Disruptions could trigger severe economic ramifications, compounding the existing pressure from global supply chains already affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Growing Regional Tensions

Moreover, this strategic maneuver by India signals a worrisome trend in the regional balance of power. As India positions itself as a burgeoning global power, its unilateral actions can lead to:

  • A fragile geopolitical environment
  • Fostered ill will among its neighbors (Ortiz & Bilham, 2003)

The implications of such isolationism not only threaten regional stability but also highlight the stark inequalities between emerging powers like India and their smaller neighbors. This dynamic has historical precedents in colonial and postcolonial South Asia (Chung, 2017).

What if Bangladesh Turns to China for Support?

In response to India’s exclusion, if Bangladesh pivots decisively toward China, the implications could reverberate across South Asia’s geopolitical landscape. This shift may:

  • Initiate deeper economic ties
  • Spur new trade agreements
  • Embed Bangladesh further within China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)

However, such a pivot would likely exacerbate tensions with India, as Indian policymakers view China’s growing influence in Bangladesh with suspicion and apprehension (McSweeney, 2002). A militarized response from India, including increased naval exercises in the Bay of Bengal, could ensue, potentially igniting a broader regional rivalry.

Furthermore, if Bangladesh successfully navigates this alliance with China, it might emerge as a counterbalance to Indian dominance, fundamentally reshaping regional economic and political dynamics. However, this outcome would not come without risks, including:

  • Increased economic reliance on China
  • Vulnerability to Beijing’s strategic calculus
  • Limited autonomy complicating domestic and foreign policies

What if India Strengthens Its Economic Self-Reliance?

In an alternative scenario, India could prioritize enhancing its economic self-reliance in critical sectors such as textiles and technology as a response to the evolving landscape (Bhaduri et al., 2020). By focusing on local manufacturing, India could reduce its dependency on neighboring states and foster its growth as a manufacturing hub. However, this strategy could have devastating costs for Bangladesh’s economy, particularly its garment sector, described as the backbone of its economic stability (Alam et al., 2018).

The broader implications of India’s self-reliance agenda could lead to:

  • Realignments in trade relationships across the region
  • Exacerbated existing inequalities
  • Reinforced dominance of larger economies over smaller ones

Should India succeed in insulating itself from global trade pressures, it may inadvertently engender a cycle of protectionism, tightening its grip on economic power within South Asia while leaving Bangladesh grappling with heightened vulnerability (Rahman & Ara, 2010).

Implementing a self-reliance strategy could also invoke competitive nationalism, with both India and Bangladesh engaging in aggressive economic policies aimed at safeguarding their domestic industries. The fallout from such a competitive stance could lead to heightened trade barriers, affecting not just bilateral relations but regional cooperation more broadly.

What if International Organizations Intervene?

As tensions rise, the role of international organizations such as the United Nations or the World Trade Organization may become critical. An intervention aimed at mediating the conflict could:

  • Foster dialogue between India and Bangladesh
  • Lead to resumed cooperative trade relations (Siddiqui et al., 2020)

However, such mediation carries risks; India might perceive external pressures as infringements on its sovereignty, further straining relations (Kuruvilla, 1996). Effective mediation could pave the way for new frameworks promoting intra-regional cooperation but any perceived bias could undermine these organizations’ credibility and drive nations toward alternative alliances (Simon, 2008).

Should international organizations successfully facilitate dialogue, new opportunities for trade agreements that benefit both countries may emerge. However, these efforts must be sensitive to prevailing power dynamics and historical grievances, necessitating a nuanced approach to diplomacy. A failed mediation attempt could exacerbate conflicts and solidify alignments along nationalistic lines, hindering prospects for regional stability.

Strategic Maneuvers: Possible Actions for All Players Involved

Given the rising tensions and economic challenges posed by India’s port closure, several strategic options emerge for key stakeholders: India, Bangladesh, and external actors like China.

India’s Strategic Options

For India, consolidating its economic advantages while fostering regional cooperation could mitigate the implications of Bangladesh’s potential alignment with China. Key strategies may include:

  1. Enhancing Bilateral Relations: Invest resources in diplomatic outreach to Bangladesh and other neighboring countries to strengthen ties and address grievances through economic incentives and joint ventures.

  2. Developing Strategic Alliances: Enhance alliances with other countries in South Asia and beyond to counterbalance China’s influence, promoting stability and prosperity.

  3. Crisis Management: Establish a rapid response mechanism for crises involving trade and political disagreements, signaling India’s commitment to cooperative governance.

Bangladesh’s Strategic Options

Conversely, Bangladesh must reassess its foreign policy in light of these developments. Specific strategies may include:

  1. Exploring New Trade Agreements: Actively seek new trade agreements with not only China but also other nations that can provide economic support.

  2. Strengthening Domestic Industries: Invest in domestic production capabilities to enhance economic resilience and reduce dependency on imports.

  3. Diplomatic Outreach: Build coalitions with Southeast Asian nations to provide diplomatic support in negotiations with India.

External Actors: China’s Role

For international actors, particularly China, this moment presents an opportunity to deepen engagement with Bangladesh through economic assistance and infrastructure investment. Strategies may involve:

  1. Infrastructure Investment: Accelerate funding for infrastructure projects in Bangladesh under the Belt and Road Initiative to solidify its position as a key partner.

  2. Enhancing Bilateral Trade: Establish favorable trade terms for Bangladesh to strengthen economic ties and create mutual dependencies.

  3. Geopolitical Engagement: Leverage influence to forge a coalition among smaller South Asian nations, countering India’s dominance and fostering a multipolar regional order.

Conclusion

The interplay between India’s geopolitical maneuvering and Bangladesh’s strategic responses could set the stage for profound transformations across South Asia. As regional dynamics evolve, each player’s actions and reactions will significantly influence the collective path forward. Potential outcomes may range from increased cooperation to escalated tensions. The following sections will further explore potential ramifications and outcomes, ensuring that stakeholders remain aware of the growing complexities in the region.

References

  • Alam, M., & Arjuman Ara, L. (2018). Enduring Entanglement: The Multi-Sectoral Impact of the Rohingya Crisis on Neighboring Bangladesh. Georgetown Journal of International Affairs.
  • Bhaduri, E., Manoj, B., Wadud, Z., & Goswami, A. K. (2020). Modelling the effects of COVID-19 on travel mode choice behaviour in India. Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives.
  • Kuruvilla, S. (1996). Linkages between Industrialization Strategies and Industrial Relations/Human Resource Policies: Singapore, Malaysia, the Philippines, and India. ILR Review.
  • Rahman, M. A., & Ara, L. A. (2010). Bangladesh trade potential: a dynamic gravity approach. Journal of International Trade Law and Policy.
  • Rahman, M. A., & Ara, L. A. (2020). The Impact of COVID-19 on the Garment Sector in Bangladesh. International Journal of Business and Management.
  • Siddiqui, A. F., Wiederkehr, M., Rozanova, L., & Flahault, A. (2020). Situation of India in the COVID-19 Pandemic: India’s Initial Pandemic Experience. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health.
  • Sahoo, P. (2013). Economic Relations with Bangladesh: China’s Ascent and India’s Decline. South Asia Research.
  • Simon, S. (2008). ASEAN and Multilateralism: The Long, Bumpy Road to Community. Contemporary Southeast Asia.
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