Muslim World Report

Turkey Saudi Arabia and Israel: Who Will Dominate the Middle East?

Dr. Anthony Lindsay | Mar 30, 2025 9:13 AM | 6 min read | 1098 words

TL;DR: Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Israel are competing for regional dominance in the Middle East. This post examines each nation’s strengths and challenges, analyzing potential future scenarios that could shape their influence.

The Future Regional Superpower in the Middle East: Analyzing Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Israel

The geopolitical landscape of the Middle East is undergoing a fundamental transformation as Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Israel vie for regional dominance. Each nation presents unique advantages and challenges, fundamentally altering the dynamics of power in a region historically characterized by conflict and rivalry. This editorial delves into the potential trajectories of these three key players, drawing upon historical context and contemporary developments while also exploring critical “What If” scenarios that may shape their paths forward.

Turkey’s Bid for Leadership

Turkey emerges as a formidable contender for regional leadership due to several factors:

  • Strategic geographic position at the crossroads of Europe and Asia
  • Considerable population and an industrialized economy
  • Cultural ties to a substantial portion of the Muslim world

The “Strategic Depth” doctrine articulated by Ahmet Davutoğlu provides a theoretical foundation for Ankara’s foreign policy, positioning Turkey not merely as a regional power but as a potential leader in the Islamic world (Kösebalaban, 2001). However, Turkey’s ambitions are hindered by internal challenges, including:

  • Rampant inflation
  • Civil unrest
  • The rise of authoritarianism under President Erdoğan

What If Turkey Stabilizes Its Internal Challenges?

Should Turkey succeed in stabilizing its internal issues, including inflation and civil unrest, it may solidify its position as the dominant regional superpower. Possible outcomes include:

  • Economic reforms that address inflation and foster political stability
  • Increased public confidence in the government, reinforcing President Erdoğan’s leadership
  • Enhanced military power projection beyond its borders

A stable internal environment would empower Turkey to:

  • Assert influence in neighboring regions such as the Caucasus, the Balkans, and the Middle East
  • Foster new alliances with other Muslim-majority nations
  • Position itself as a leader in advocating for Islamic causes on the global stage

However, this scenario could also ignite ethnic and sectarian tensions, particularly in areas marked by historical grievances. An empowered Turkey may prompt responses from other powers, including Iran, seeking to counter its influence, leading to a more complex geopolitical environment characterized by shifting allegiances and potential conflicts.

Saudi Arabia’s Economic Dilemma

Saudi Arabia finds itself in a precarious position as it attempts to navigate contemporary challenges while transitioning away from an oil-dependent economy through its Vision 2030 initiative. This ambitious development plan aims to diversify the economy and reduce budget deficits, but it is under severe strain due to fluctuating oil prices and regional instability (Albejaidi & Nair, 2019; Moshashai et al., 2018).

What If Saudi Arabia Fails to Diversify Its Economy?

The future of Saudi Arabia hangs precariously in the balance. Potential consequences of failing to diversify include:

  • Economic instability that could lead to social unrest
  • Diminished power in international negotiations
  • A retreat into a more isolationist stance

In this scenario, Saudi Arabia might focus on internal consolidation rather than external influence, risking a vacuum of power that other nations, including Iran or Turkey, could exploit. Furthermore, an unstable Saudi Arabia could destabilize the Gulf Cooperation Council, undermining vital regional alliances and collective security agreements.

Israel’s Technological Challenges

Israel, renowned for its technological innovation and military prowess, is confronting significant challenges, including:

  • The rapid evolution of disruptive technologies such as artificial intelligence
  • The unresolved Palestinian issue, which threatens relationships with Arab states

What If Israel’s Economy Declines Due to Disruptive Technology?

The rapid evolution of technology poses both opportunities and existential threats for Israel. If the economy begins to decline, possible implications include:

  • Strain on the social fabric of Israeli society, leading to increased dissatisfaction among demographics feeling left behind
  • Pressure on military spending, traditionally a source of regional power and influence
  • A recalibration of global alliances, particularly with Western nations

The ramifications of such a scenario would alter the regional balance of power fundamentally, potentially leading to a resurgence of pan-Arab nationalism or Islamic movements opposing perceived Western imperialism.

The Overarching Dynamics

The implications of these geopolitical dynamics extend far beyond the borders of Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Israel. The relationships each country nurtures—with one another and with external powers—are pivotal in reshaping not only the Middle East but also global geopolitics.

As the power struggle intensifies, it highlights the urgent need for these nations to:

  • Address existing power structures
  • Respond to the socio-economic needs of their populations

Public aspirations and grievances largely drive regional instability, necessitating responsive governance that prioritizes economic development and public welfare (Vatankhah & Navazeni, 2020).

To navigate their futures effectively, each nation must:

  • Turkey: Focus on economic stabilization through transparent fiscal policies and investments in social programs while strengthening diplomatic relationships.
  • Saudi Arabia: Commit to a genuine diversification strategy that invests in education, technology, and governance reform to attract foreign investment.
  • Israel: Prioritize research and development, invest in sectors aligned with global trends, and address the Palestinian issue substantively for regional stability.

Ultimately, success in the intricate political theater of the Middle East will depend on each nation’s ability to adapt to a rapidly changing world, prioritize the welfare of their populations, and redefine their roles in a multipolar global environment.

References

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  • Çalışkan, Y. (2021). The Future of Political Islam in Turkey: Erdoğan’s Struggle for Identity. Insight Turkey, 23(2), 55-70.

  • Dafotakis, A., & Hamdi, A. (2021). Turkey’s Strategic Transformation: A New Paradigm. Turkish Studies, 22(1), 1-20. https://doi.org/10.1080/14683849.2021.1890377

  • Fulton, J. (2020). Situating Saudi Arabia in China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Asian Politics & Policy, 12(2), 259-275. https://doi.org/10.1111/aspp.12549

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  • Moshashai, M., Leber, A., & Savage, J. D. (2018). Saudi Arabia plans for its economic future: Vision 2030, the National Transformation Plan and Saudi fiscal reform. British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies, 45(4), 512-528. https://doi.org/10.1080/13530194.2018.1500269

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  • Suleiman, A. K., & Ming, L. C. (2025). Transforming healthcare: Saudi Arabia’s vision 2030 healthcare model. Journal of Pharmaceutical Policy and Practice, 13(1), 40. https://doi.org/10.1080/20523211.2024.2449051

  • Vatankhah, Z., & Navazeni, B. (2020). Turkey’s Approach to the Nagorno-Karabakh Crisis (2003-2020). Political Studies, 9(2), 178-193. https://doi.org/10.30479/psiw.2020.11521.2622

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