Muslim World Report

Erdogan's Approval Ratings Plummet Ahead of Critical Elections

Dr. Anthony Lindsay | Apr 10, 2025 10:24 AM | 10 min read | 1923 words

TL;DR: President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s approval ratings have plummeted, signaling a potential political crisis ahead of critical elections in Turkey. The outcome could reshape domestic policies and foreign relations, either by ushering in democratic reforms or enhancing authoritarian control.

The Political Crisis in Turkey: Implications and Opportunities

As of April 2025, Turkey stands at a critical juncture, with the political landscape shifting dramatically amid a backdrop of declining approval ratings for President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. A survey conducted by Europe Elects in March 2025 indicates a growing anti-incumbency sentiment, reflecting widespread dissatisfaction with Erdoğan’s administration (Yılmaz, 2024). This discontent is exacerbated by a series of controversial policies, including the banning of popular online platforms like Roblox—an act emblematic of the broader trends of censorship and authoritarian governance that stifle personal freedoms and democratic engagement (Kalaycıoğlu, 2017).

As Turkey approaches its pivotal elections, the stakes are higher than ever. These elections will not only test the resilience of Erdoğan’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) but also gauge the pulse of an increasingly polarized electorate. The implications of this political crisis extend far beyond Turkey’s borders, raising questions about the nation’s role in global geopolitics, particularly in relation to NATO, the European Union, and the shifting dynamics in the Middle East (Öniş & Kutlay, 2020). Erdoğan’s declining popularity could signal increased instability, both within Turkey and throughout the region, potentially igniting civil unrest or leading to significant shifts in the political landscape—outcomes that could reshape Turkey’s domestic and foreign policy trajectory (Erişen, 2015; Yavuz, 2004).

The Consequences of Erdoğan’s Potential Fall

Should Erdoğan lose power in the upcoming elections, the implications could be profound and far-reaching. A transition to new leadership might catalyze significant shifts in domestic policy, particularly concerning:

  • Civil liberties
  • Media freedom
  • Economic governance (Yılmaz, 2019)

A new administration may prioritize the restoration of democratic institutions, foster dialogue with dissenting voices, and increase political plurality—a welcome change for many citizens who feel weary from authoritarian rule (Aydın, 2024).

In this ‘What If’ scenario, one could envision the emergence of a government committed to democratic ideals. This new regime may actively engage in reforms, such as:

  • Repealing laws that limit press freedom
  • Implementing protections for civil society organizations that challenge governmental overreach (Yardımcı-Geyikçi & Yavuzyılmaz, 2024)

This potential shift in leadership could also recalibrate Turkey’s foreign relations. Should a new regime take the helm, it might seek to distance itself from Erdoğan’s contentious relationships with authoritarian regimes and nationalist movements. Such a realignment could lead to:

  • Improved ties with the EU
  • A reassessment of Turkey’s role within NATO

A more pro-Western Turkish administration could reinvigorate economic cooperation with Europe, opening avenues for investment and trade that have been stifled under Erdoğan’s watch (Öniş & Güven, 2011).

However, this transition is fraught with risks. Political instability may erupt if Erdoğan’s supporters resist change, igniting civil unrest (Zahariadis et al., 2020). The potential for violence and discord is heightened by the fact that any perceived weakness in Turkey’s leadership could embolden regional adversaries, such as Greece or Kurdish factions, to exploit the turmoil, further raising tensions (Balkan & Savran, 2002).

In this context, the scenarios of unrest must be carefully examined. What if Erdoğan’s supporters engage in mass protests in an attempt to maintain the status quo? This could lead to violent clashes between supporters of the outgoing regime and those advocating for reform; thus, establishing a fragile peace in a newly democratic Turkey might necessitate delicate negotiation processes to address the grievances of all involved parties.

The Consequences of Erdoğan’s Continued Rule

Conversely, if Erdoğan retains power amid these declining approval ratings, he may solidify his authoritarian grip on the nation, further exacerbating societal divisions. A continuation of his presidency would likely perpetuate the policies that have drawn public ire, including:

  • Stifling of dissent
  • Erosion of democratic freedoms
  • Restrictions on free expression (Yardımcı-Geyikçi & Yavuzyılmaz, 2024)

In such a scenario, Erdoğan may intensify his populist rhetoric, galvanizing his base by invoking nationalist sentiments and portraying dissenters as enemies of the state. This could manifest in:

  • Increased crackdowns on media and civil society
  • Severe repercussions for dissent, including imprisonment of opposition leaders and activists (Castaldo, 2018)

Internationally, Erdoğan’s sustained leadership could deepen Turkey’s estrangement from the West, particularly if he continues to engage with non-Western powers like Russia and Iran. Such a pivot might alienate Turkey from its NATO allies and jeopardize its strategic positioning in the region, especially concerning pivotal issues like the Syrian conflict and refugee crises (Öniş, 2014; Göl, 2017).

Moreover, an Erdoğan-led Turkey may pursue more aggressive foreign policies to distract from domestic challenges, potentially escalating tensions with neighboring countries. Under increased pressure, Erdoğan might seek to reinforce nationalistic narratives that paint external forces as enemies, heightening domestic tensions and potentially leading to military confrontations with regional adversaries. This trajectory, coupled with deepening public discontent, could lay the groundwork for protracted conflict, both within Turkey and in its foreign relations (Korkut & Eslen-Ziya, 2016).

Strategic Maneuvers for All Involved

As Turkey finds itself at this critical crossroads, various stakeholders—political parties, civil society organizations, international actors, and the general populace—must navigate this precarious situation with strategic foresight.

For opposition parties, uniting under a common platform that transcends ideological divides is crucial. By presenting a coordinated front, they can rally support from disillusioned citizens seeking change, gaining momentum leading up to the elections (McCoy & Somer, 2021). Engaging actively with civil society to restore trust and empower community voices that challenge authoritarianism will also be pivotal.

In this context, what if opposition parties fail to unite? The fragmented political landscape would only serve to empower Erdoğan’s rule, allowing him to further entrench himself in power. Conversely, if a united front emerges, it could present a formidable challenge to the AKP, pushing for a reform agenda that resonates with the populace and responds to the urgent need for democratic governance.

For Erdoğan, the challenge lies in addressing public grievances while maintaining power. This may necessitate a shift toward more responsive governance, including:

  • Increasing transparency
  • Reconsidering controversial policies that contribute to widespread discontent

Engaging with the youth—an increasingly vocal demographic—could help mitigate the eroding trust in his leadership (Dinas et al., 2019).

An interesting ‘What If’ potentiality is that Erdoğan could adopt a strategy of reform by engaging youth-centric initiatives and promoting entrepreneurial ventures, thereby recapturing support from younger generations disillusioned by the current regime. By actively addressing the demands of the youth, Erdoğan could work to restore a semblance of legitimacy in his governance.

International dynamics are also critical in this scenario. The European Union and NATO have a vested interest in Turkey’s political stability. Diplomacy should be leveraged to engage with all parties, promoting dialogue and supporting democratic movements. This approach ensures Turkey remains a significant player in regional stability while encouraging necessary reforms (Öniş & Kutlay, 2017).

What if the international community decides to take a more hands-off approach, allowing domestic issues to play out without intervention? Such a withdrawal might pave the way for Erdoğan to solidify power without external pressures, further entrenching his rule.

The Turkish populace, as the ultimate arbiter of change, must continue to leverage its voice in advocating for reforms, human rights, and democratic governance. Grassroots movements and advocacy campaigns promoting civic engagement will play a crucial role in determining Turkey’s future trajectory amidst this political turmoil.

Implications for Domestic and Foreign Policy

The political crisis in Turkey not only carries implications for its domestic governance but also for its foreign relations. In the face of potential changes in leadership or the consolidation of Erdoğan’s power, the international community must remain vigilant and responsive to the shifting dynamics.

  1. Potential for Democratic Regeneration: Should the opposition successfully capitalize on Erdoğan’s vulnerabilities, Turkey could witness a regeneration of democratic governance. New leadership might seek to align Turkey more closely with Western ideals and policies, fostering enhanced cooperation with NATO and the EU. Economic partnerships could be revitalized, leading to increased investments and trade, ultimately benefitting the Turkish economy.

  2. Increased Authoritarianism: Conversely, an Erdoğan win could lead to increased authoritarian measures. The international community might face challenges in addressing human rights violations and curtailment of freedoms in Turkey, potentially resulting in sanctions or diplomatic isolations. A more authoritarian Turkey may also engage more provocatively in regional conflicts, complicating international diplomatic efforts.

  3. Geopolitical Tensions: The geopolitical landscape surrounding Turkey is complex. Changes in leadership or continuing Erdoğan’s rule could heighten tensions with neighboring countries, particularly Greece and Kurdish factions. As Turkey navigates its internal dynamics, the responses of these regional players will be closely monitored and could significantly affect Turkey’s foreign relations.

  4. International Human Rights Initiatives: Regardless of the election outcome, international human rights organizations will likely increase their scrutiny of Turkey’s governance. Should Erdoğan remain, advocacy for human rights and democratic governance will continue to be a cornerstone of foreign policy. Conversely, a new government may find international support as it attempts to rebuild its democratic credentials.

Conclusion

The ongoing political crisis in Turkey serves as a palpable reminder of the fragility of democratic institutions in the face of populism and authoritarianism. As the country approaches a critical electoral juncture, the potential outcomes carry not only profound implications for the Turkish populace but also for regional stability and international relations. Whether Turkey moves toward a renewed democratic framework or continues down the path of authoritarianism will depend on the actions of key stakeholders, both within the country and across the globe.

The evolving situation in Turkey presents a unique opportunity for re-envisioning a more democratic and inclusive society, yet navigating the challenges ahead will require strategic commitment from all actors involved to foster a peaceful and equitable resolution to this consequential moment in the nation’s history. The stakes are high, the challenges complex, and the world is watching closely as Turkey’s political future unfolds.

References

  • Aydın, A. (2024). Political Change in Turkey: Options Ahead. Journal of Middle Eastern Politics.
  • Balkan, N., & Savran, S. (2002). The Politics of Permanent Crisis: Class, Ideology and State in Turkey. Unknown Journal.
  • Castaldo, A. (2018). Populism and Competitive Authoritarianism in Turkey. Journal of Southeast European and Black Sea Studies.
  • Dinas, E., Matakos, K., Xefteris, D., & Hangartner, D. (2019). Waking Up the Golden Dawn: Does Exposure to the Refugee Crisis Increase Support for Extreme-Right Parties?. Political Analysis.
  • Erişen, C. (2015). Emotions, Social Networks and Turkish Political Attitudes on the Syria Crisis. Journal of Southeast European and Black Sea Studies.
  • Göl, A. (2017). The Paradoxes of ‘New’ Turkey: Islam, Illiberal Democracy and Republicanism. International Affairs.
  • Kalaycıoğlu, E. (2017). Two Elections and a Political Regime in Crisis: Turkish Politics at the Crossroads. Journal of Southeast European and Black Sea Studies.
  • Korkut, U., & Eslen-Ziya, H. (2016). The Discursive Governance of Population Politics: The Evolution of a Pro-birth Regime in Turkey. Social Politics.
  • McCoy, J., & Somer, M. (2021). Overcoming Polarization. Journal of Democracy.
  • Öniş, Z., & Güven, A. B. (2011). Global Crisis, National Responses: The Political Economy of Turkish Exceptionalism. New Political Economy.
  • Öniş, Z., & Kutlay, M. (2020). Rising Powers in a Changing Global Order: the Political Economy of Turkey in the Age of BRICs. Third World Quarterly.
  • Yavuz, M. H. (2004). Islamic Political Identity in Turkey. Choice Reviews Online.
  • Yılmaz, G. (2019). The Genesis of the ‘Exceptional’ Republic: The Permanency of the Political Crisis and the Constitution of Legal Emergency Power in Turkey. British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies.
  • Yılmaz, G. (2024). The 2023 Turkish Election: A Tale of Two Campaigns and the Duel of Populisms. Journal of Southeast European and Black Sea Studies.
← Prev Next →