Muslim World Report

Modi Era Sees 174% Surge in Defence Production and Exports

Dr. Anthony Lindsay | Jun 16, 2025 11:06 AM | 6 min read | 1179 words

TL;DR: Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership, India has experienced a 174% increase in defense production and a 34-fold rise in defense exports over the past eleven years. This rapid growth raises important questions about regional security dynamics, ethical implications, and India’s global military role.

The Modi Government’s Defence Surge: Implications and Challenges

The Situation

Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership, India has witnessed a dramatic escalation in military ambitions, marked by a staggering 174% increase in defense production over the past eleven years. Equally impressive, defense exports have surged 34-fold, reflecting a strategic pivot toward self-sufficiency in military capabilities. This trajectory is indicative of India’s aspirations to:

  • Secure its borders
  • Assert itself as a prominent player in the global defense landscape

However, this rapid growth prompts critical questions regarding:

  • India’s regional security dynamics
  • Its evolving role in global geopolitics
  • The implications for relationships within South Asia and beyond

A noteworthy aspect of this surge is that approximately 80% of India’s defense production capacity remains anchored in the public sector, an area that has faced scrutiny for alleged inefficiencies and bureaucratic inertia (Mohan, 2012). Despite this context, Modi’s government has significantly pushed for the ‘Make in India’ initiative, striving for military self-reliance. Yet, a significant portion of defense technologies—particularly sophisticated systems like engine technology and digital avionics—continues to rely heavily on foreign imports. This duality highlights a critical inflection point for the Indian defense industry and raises concerns about India’s ability to establish an independent strategic identity (Raja Mohan, 2012).

Compounding this complexity is the primary destination of India’s defense exports. Myanmar has emerged as the largest importer of Indian arms, followed closely by Sri Lanka. This shift suggests potential leverage over historically contentious neighbors, particularly as India seeks to counterbalance China’s expanding influence in the region (Huang, 2015).

The implications of India’s defense production surge extend far beyond its borders, potentially reshaping international arms markets and influencing relationships with key allies, including the United States. As India enhances its military manufacturing capabilities, ethical considerations surrounding arms exports to nations with troubling human rights records come to the forefront, raising concerns about complicity in regional conflicts. Understanding these dynamics is critical for both policymakers and the citizens of countries affected by India’s military exports and strategies.

Strategic Implications and ‘What If’ Scenarios

Given the complex landscape of defense production and geopolitical dynamics, several ‘What If’ scenarios provide critical insight into how these developments could unfold and shape regional and global contexts.

1. What If Myanmar Becomes a Major Military Ally?

Should Myanmar solidify its position as a major military ally of India, the implications for regional stability could be profound. Such a partnership could enable India to mount a more robust counterbalance against China’s assertive territorial claims and military expansion. However, it may also:

  • Bolster the Myanmar military junta
  • Alarm neighboring nations like Bangladesh and Thailand, compelling them to augment their military capabilities
  • Undermine regional security cooperation (Kiefer, 2008)

This scenario could prompt an arms race, destabilizing the region further. Additionally, engaging in a military partnership with Myanmar raises ethical dilemmas, as Myanmar’s military actions have faced scrutiny for significant human rights abuses (Acharya, 2004).

2. What If Domestic Capabilities Are Not Developed?

If India fails to enhance its domestic manufacturing capabilities and continues to rely heavily on foreign imports for advanced military technologies, the ramifications for its strategic autonomy could be severe:

  • Prolonged reliance on foreign suppliers jeopardizes India’s military readiness, especially during crises when access may be restricted.
  • Ongoing import dependency may stifle the growth of a robust domestic defense industry, inhibiting essential innovation and technological advancement (Kang, 2003).

India’s geopolitical standing could suffer, as the inability to offer advanced military technology to allies diminishes its role as a counterbalance to China. This could lead nations in the region to turn to alternative partnerships, further eroding India’s strategic position.

3. What If Defence Production Becomes a Political Tool?

If the Modi government utilizes its expanding defense production capabilities as a political instrument, the consequences could be multifaceted:

  • The South Asian arms trade has historically fueled tensions; using defense exports as a means of political negotiation could deepen fragile relationships among neighboring states.
  • It raises ethical dilemmas regarding the role of arms in diplomacy, potentially compromising regional sovereignty while inviting resentment in the long term (Mearsheimer, 2010).

Aligning military exports with foreign policy objectives could generate significant pushback from international partners advocating for restraint in arms proliferation. The perception of India prioritizing political goals over ethical considerations risks alienating key allies, particularly in the West (Zedtwitz-Liebenstein et al., 2002).

Moreover, this strategy may incite domestic unrest if military expenditures overshadow essential social welfare programs. Balancing defense spending with developmental initiatives is vital for maintaining public support and avoiding destabilization of Modi’s administration.

Strategic Maneuvers

To effectively navigate the evolving defense landscape, India must undertake several strategic maneuvers that align with its ambitions while mitigating the risks outlined in these scenarios:

  1. Enhancing Domestic Capabilities: Invest in research and development within the defense sector to cultivate advanced technologies and reduce dependence on foreign imports (Renton, 2004).

  2. Diversifying Defense Export Markets: Expand partnerships with nations in the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America to mitigate risks associated with dependence on a limited number of markets (Chin & Thakur, 2010).

  3. Adopting Ethical Frameworks for Defense Exports: Establish clear guidelines for arms sales to align India’s actions with international norms and bolster its reputation as a responsible global actor (Acharya, 2004).

  4. Leveraging Regional Partnerships for Collective Security: Engage in multilateral defense initiatives and joint exercises with democratic allies to enhance collective security (Kiefer, 2008).

  5. Promoting Technological Innovation and Cooperation: Foster a culture of innovation within the defense sector by creating hubs focused on cutting-edge technologies.

  6. Strengthening Defense Diplomacy: Build trust and transparency with neighboring countries through knowledge sharing and joint military exercises.

  7. Addressing Domestic Resource Allocation: Ensure military expenditures do not overshadow essential social welfare programs to maintain public support for defense policies.

Ultimately, India’s trajectory concerning defense production necessitates a careful balance of national interests, regional stability, and ethical considerations. The choices made today will indelibly shape India’s role on the global stage in the years ahead.

References

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