Muslim World Report

Ukrainians Back Zelensky Amid Rising Tensions with Russia

Dr. Anthony Lindsay | Mar 28, 2025 9:52 AM | 7 min read | 1415 words

TL;DR: A recent poll shows that 69% of Ukrainians trust President Zelensky, highlighting his resilience amid ongoing tensions with Russia. The situation remains precarious, with military actions from Russia, potential shifts in leadership, and public sentiment all shaping the future of the conflict.

The Situation

In the face of an increasingly volatile geopolitical landscape, a recent poll indicates that 69% of Ukrainians support President Volodymyr Zelensky, reinforcing his standing as a resilient leader throughout the ongoing conflict with Russia (Thomson et al., 2023). This robust backing is particularly significant given the myriad challenges confronting Ukraine, including:

  • Aggressive military actions from Russia
  • A dire humanitarian crisis escalating since the annexation of Crimea in 2014

As the war continues into 2025, Zelensky’s leadership is increasingly viewed as a beacon of hope for Ukrainians and the broader Eastern European region, where stability hangs by a thread (Plazas-Olmedo & López Rabadán, 2023).

Zelensky recently predicted the imminent demise of Russian President Vladimir Putin—“He will die soon, that’s a fact.” This comment complicates existing dialogue surrounding the conflict. While speculation about Putin’s health, including rumors of Parkinson’s disease and terminal illnesses, could suggest a potential power vacuum, it risks underestimating the entrenched resilience of his leadership (Mulligan, 2022). Historical evidence shows that Russian political structures are capable of withstanding internal pressures, as noted by Vyacheslav Volodin, chairman of the Russian parliament, who stated that a successor to Putin could likely continue his aggressive policies (Kilp & Pankhurst, 2022). The centralization of power within Putin’s regime illustrates a critical dynamic: the erosion of democratic processes makes any leadership change fraught with challenges, potentially igniting instability across the post-Soviet sphere (Clark, 2024).

Recent military actions from Russia, such as renewed attacks on Kherson that defy a U.S.-brokered ceasefire, highlight the fragile nature of temporary agreements aimed at de-escalating tensions (Giorgis et al., 2023). Zelensky’s condemnation of these aggressions represents a pivotal moment for both domestic and international observers. The key questions are:

  • Will the West respond by escalating military support for Ukraine?
  • Will the cycle of aggression, marked by bleak ceasefires, continue?

An escalation of Western support carries complexities; such actions may provoke Russia to retaliate aggressively, potentially transforming the conflict into a larger geopolitical confrontation (Richter, 2022).

What if Putin dies or is incapacitated?

The possible death or incapacitation of Putin raises immediate questions regarding succession. The Kremlin is notorious for its opacity, creating potential for political fragmentation (Sakwa, 2013). Possible outcomes include:

  • A power struggle among rival factions could destabilize the regime.
  • A more moderate figure might seek to de-escalate hostilities in Ukraine.
  • Conversely, a hardline successor could intensify nationalist sentiments and escalate military operations against Ukraine (Terzyan, 2020).

The relative weakness of central authority in this scenario may foster opportunities for:

  • Insurgent groups to gain influence
  • Organized crime complicating Western interactions with a highly unpredictable Russia (Mälksoo, 2009)

Leadership transitions could provoke a surge in military aggression as factions scramble for control, further delaying peace negotiations and extending Ukraine’s humanitarian crisis (Chestnut Greitens, 2022). The dynamics after a leadership change could profoundly alter the geopolitical landscape across Eastern Europe.

What if Zelensky’s popularity wanes?

Despite Zelensky’s current high approval ratings, public sentiment in wartime can change rapidly. A decline in popularity, driven by unmet expectations, could lead to:

  • Political rivals challenging his authority (Ekman, 2023)
  • Calls for a more conciliatory approach to Russia, jeopardizing Ukraine’s territorial integrity

The likelihood of political instability could increase, making it challenging for Ukraine to maintain a unified front against external threats. Additionally, a decrease in support might embolden Russia, presuming that a shift in Ukrainian leadership could lead to favorable terms for Moscow (Gioe et al., 2019). The potential for civil unrest, including disobedience or coup attempts, would further complicate the situation, detracting from the war effort and risking a power vacuum (Nazarovets & Teixeira da Silva, 2022).

Zelensky’s administration must navigate these treacherous waters; understanding the implications of public opinion is crucial for governance. A failure to effectively manage public expectations could prove detrimental to both Zelensky’s presidency and Ukraine’s broader war effort.

What if the U.S. escalates military support for Ukraine?

An escalation of U.S. military support could fundamentally alter conflict dynamics (Rynning, 2015). Increased support might:

  • Bolster Ukraine’s defenses
  • Consolidate domestic support for Zelensky’s administration

However, this military aid is a double-edged sword. Risks include:

  • Russia perceiving the support as an existential threat, provoking retaliatory measures
  • Deepening the conflict and complicating the broader geopolitical landscape

A growing reliance on U.S. military support could undermine Ukraine’s sovereignty, positioning Western powers as influential stakeholders in military strategies. This dependency might breed resentment among segments of the population valuing self-determination (Henrikson, 2022).

In summary, while U.S. military support could yield immediate advantages, the long-term ramifications require thorough examination. The risk of entanglement in a broader geopolitical conflict must be balanced with urgent tactical needs against Russia.

Strategic Maneuvers

As the Ukraine conflict evolves, a multifaceted approach is paramount for all involved actors. Ukraine must prioritize unity among its populace and align military and governance strategies. Zelensky should enhance transparent communication with the public, detailing both the dire conditions on the ground and the government’s resilience strategies (Hrrushetskyi, 2023). Engaging civil society could boost public morale and solidify support for difficult decisions as the conflict extends (Börzel, 2023). Furthermore, articulating a cohesive narrative focused on Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity can mobilize international sympathy and support, especially from nations hesitant about direct involvement (Zachara, 2023).

For Western powers, particularly the United States and European allies, the challenge lies in balancing comprehensive support for Ukraine with managing escalation risks with Russia. Any increase in military aid should be accompanied by clear communication channels to mitigate misunderstandings. In this precarious situation, diplomacy must remain a viable option, emphasizing that military support is a defensive measure aimed at paving the way for negotiations should new, more amenable leadership emerge in Russia (Aliyev, 2016).

On the Russian side, recalibrating strategy in light of new leadership dynamics will be essential if narratives surrounding Putin’s health shift (Ljubownikow et al., 2013). The Russian elite must deliberate on whether to pursue aggressive military tactics or explore diplomatic pathways that could stabilize the region and potentially ease sanctions (Piliayeva, 2023). Maintaining a controlled narrative at home to address both internal dissent and external pressures will be crucial for the next administration (Surguy, 2021).

The complexity of the Ukraine conflict necessitates strategic maneuvering from all parties involved. Collaborative efforts aimed at fostering stability, enhanced communication, and resilience will shape the future of Ukraine and the broader geopolitical landscape in Eastern Europe.

References

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