Muslim World Report

Assessing Safety in Afghanistan Under Taliban Rule

Dr. Anthony Lindsay | Jun 12, 2025 10:32 AM | 5 min read | 1049 words

TL;DR: The Taliban’s rule in Afghanistan has led to increased violence, particularly affecting women, and posed significant challenges to governance. The potential for humanitarian crises and international intervention raises crucial questions about the future of the country, necessitating a balanced approach among all stakeholders to ensure stability and human rights.

The Struggles of Safety and Stability in Taliban-Controlled Afghanistan

The situation in Afghanistan has deteriorated sharply since the Taliban regained power in August 2021. Under their rule, the country has witnessed a systemic collapse of safety and societal stability, disproportionately affecting marginalized groups, especially women. Key concerns include:

  • Rising violence against women, with alarming rates of kidnapping, enslavement, and sexual assault.
  • Estimates suggest that as high as 50% of women may be affected (Khan & Kirmani, 2018).
  • This crisis poses a fundamental challenge to global norms regarding human rights and gender equality.

Governance Challenges and Internal Dynamics

The Taliban’s internal governance struggles are compounded by their historical reputation, particularly with the rise of figures like Sirajuddin Haqqani, who has assumed control over the country’s security apparatus. His leadership raises serious concerns about the Taliban’s commitment to safety and stability.

Key Issues within Taliban Governance:

  • Violent approaches to maintaining control over a fragmented society.
  • Stringent policies against opium production have devastated rural communities, leading to increased malnutrition and poverty levels (Hashimy, 2022).
  • Economic hardship complicates governance as the Taliban struggles to maintain legitimacy amid dire humanitarian conditions.

While the Taliban asserts that Afghanistan is safe for returnees, the reality reveals complexities:

  • Pakistan and Iran have begun deporting Afghan nationals, reflecting waning tolerance for the refugee burden (Egnell, 2008).
  • The Taliban’s isolation from the global economy complicates its governance model.
  • Non-Pashtun populations experience marginalization, fueling resentment and eroding national identity (Okoli, 2014).

Moreover, the potential resurgence of extremist groups like ISIS adds another layer of insecurity, conflicting with both the Taliban’s governance and regional dynamics.

What If Scenarios: Analyzing Potential Futures for Afghanistan

As the situation in Afghanistan evolves, potential futures emerge. Here are critical “What If” scenarios that could shape the trajectory of the country and its people.

What If the Taliban Faces Increased Insurgency?

  • Resurgence of insurgent activity by factions like ISIS could spiral the humanitarian crisis out of control.
  • Increased violence may worsen conditions for civilians, culminating in displacement and intensified Taliban efforts to maintain order.
  • Insurgents capitalizing on grievances could lead to significant international scrutiny and intervention (Meskell, 2002).

Potential consequences include:

  • A mass exodus of refugees seeking safety, straining neighboring countries.
  • Increased internal Taliban fractures, leading to infighting and governance breakdown.
  • A complex geopolitical landscape, with foreign actors engaging in dialogues with competing Afghan factions (Kpughe, 2017).

What If the International Community Recognizes the Taliban?

  • Formal recognition of the Taliban by the international community could come with conditions related to human rights guarantees.
  • Recognition may embolden the Taliban, leading to a lack of moderation in governance (Neuwirth, 2002).
  • Non-Pashtun populations may feel further alienated, deepening ethnic divisions and potentially reigniting civil unrest.

Geopolitical implications could include:

  • Regional powers recalibrating their strategies, possibly leading to proxy conflicts.
  • The humanitarian crisis may escalate, impacting international involvement.

What If External Powers Intervene?

External intervention remains a contentious topic, with scenarios ranging from military involvement to diplomatic engagement:

  • Military intervention could exacerbate civilian casualties and anti-Western sentiments.
  • Conversely, diplomatic engagement with non-Taliban factions might create opportunities for broader dialogue and reconciliation.

However, risks of intervention include:

  • Civil strife and power vacuums leading to greater instability.
  • Intervention fatigue in the international community could leave Afghanistan vulnerable once again.

To navigate this landscape, a strategic focus on local agency over foreign control is essential. A coordinated effort emphasizing Afghan sovereignty and community-led initiatives could promote long-term stability.

Women’s Rights and Humanitarian Crisis

The humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan is marked by severe restrictions on women’s rights, worsening already dire living conditions. Under Taliban rule, women face systemic exclusion from:

  • Education, employment, and public life.
  • Rising violence against women, including domestic abuse, forced marriage, and human trafficking.

The implications are profound:

  • Exclusion of women hinders economic development and limits Afghanistan’s potential for recovery.
  • Diminished access to healthcare, particularly reproductive health services, has significantly increased maternal mortality rates.

What If the Humanitarian Crisis Escalates?

Should the humanitarian crisis worsen, potential outcomes may include:

  • A mass exodus of refugees, stressing neighboring countries like Pakistan and Iran.
  • Increased violence, with the likelihood of foreign intervention rising.
  • Careful consideration of intervention strategies to avoid exacerbating tensions.

Conclusion

To navigate Afghanistan’s complex situation, all stakeholders must consider strategic approaches conducive to stability:

For the Taliban:

  • Engage with non-Pashtun ethnic groups to create a more inclusive governance framework.
  • Reconsider their human rights approach, particularly regarding women’s rights, for potential recognition and aid.

For Neighboring Countries:

  • Foster dialogue among Afghan factions to promote ceasefires emphasizing Afghan sovereignty.
  • Provide humanitarian assistance directly to Afghan civilians to reduce resentment.

For the International Community:

  • Adopt a nuanced approach combining humanitarian aid with diplomatic engagement.
  • Invest in civil society initiatives emphasizing education and economic development to empower local communities.

The path forward for Afghanistan is fraught with challenges. However, with strategic engagement focusing on inclusivity and understanding, there remains potential for a stable future. Balancing the interests of all stakeholders while prioritizing the welfare of the Afghan populace is crucial in navigating the turbulent landscape ahead.

References

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  • Hashimy, S. Q. (2022). The recognition and legitimacy of the Taliban government: A conundrum in international law. SSRN Electronic Journal.
  • Khan, A., & Kirmani, N. (2018). Moving beyond the binary. Feminist Dissent. https://doi.org/10.31273/fd.n3.2018.286
  • Kpughe, M. (2017). Christian churches and the Boko Haram insurgency in Cameroon: Dilemmas and responses. Religions. https://doi.org/10.3390/rel8080143
  • Meskell, L. (2002). Negative heritage and past mastering in archaeology. Anthropological Quarterly. https://doi.org/10.1353/anq.2002.0050
  • Neuwirth, J. (2002). Women and peace and security: The implementation of U.N. Security Council Resolution 1325. Duke Journal of Gender Law & Policy.
  • Tijjani, H. J. (2021). White flags: On the return of the Afghan Taliban and the fate of Afghanistan. Asian Affairs. https://doi.org/10.1080/03068374.2021.1882792
  • Vinci, A. (2007). Existential motivations in the Lord’s Resistance Army’s continuing conflict. Studies in Conflict and Terrorism. https://doi.org/10.1080/10576100701200173
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