Muslim World Report

Pentagon Reviews AUKUS: What It Means for Global Alliances

Dr. Anthony Lindsay | Jun 13, 2025 10:12 AM | 8 min read | 1652 words

TL;DR: The Pentagon’s review of AUKUS raises concerns about U.S. commitments to allies, particularly amid escalating tensions with China. A potential pivot by Australia towards new alliances could alter regional security dynamics and challenge U.S. dominance in the Indo-Pacific.

AUKUS Reassessment: A Fork in the Road for Global Alliances

The Pentagon’s recent review of the AUKUS agreement—a strategic pact between the United States, Australia, and the United Kingdom—marks a critical juncture in the shifting geopolitical landscape. Initially designed to enhance military collaboration and deterrence in the Indo-Pacific, especially regarding China, this agreement includes:

  • Sale of up to five Virginia-class nuclear submarines to Australia
  • Development of a new class of submarines named SSN AUKUS

However, the review’s primary aim is to assess the alignment of this arrangement with President Biden’s ‘America First’ policy, raising significant questions about the future of U.S. commitments to its allies at a time of escalating threats and regional tensions.

This reassessment comes at a pivotal moment when the United States has urged its allies to bolster their military capabilities. Yet, the AUKUS review could signal a retreat from collective defense commitments that have historically defined U.S. alliances. Critics argue that:

  • Halting or renegotiating this agreement would erode trust among allies.
  • It could embolden adversaries, particularly as China accelerates its military ambitions.

The implications of a weakened AUKUS are profound. It could compel Australia and the UK to reevaluate their own defense strategies and alliances, potentially leading to a new security architecture that may not favor U.S. interests. A failure to maintain robust alliances in this critical region could destabilize the balance of power, increase the risk of regional conflicts, and complicate the already fraught U.S.-China relationship (Kipiani, 2023; Papageorgiou et al., 2024).

Globally, the review could have far-reaching impacts:

  • On international norms surrounding military partnerships
  • The proliferation of advanced military technology
  • The alignment of nations in an increasingly multipolar world

As countries reassess their alliances, the dichotomy of cooperation versus confrontation will reshape both regional and global security paradigms. The stakes are high: maintaining cohesive alliances while addressing national security interests and countering the rise of non-Western powers will define U.S. foreign policy for years to come (Green & Shearer, 2012; Hunter, 2014).

What If Australia Forms New Alliances?

Should the AUKUS agreement be scrapped or fundamentally restructured, Australia may seek new alliances outside traditional U.S.-led frameworks. This pivot could lead to increased military cooperation with regional players, such as:

  • India
  • Japan
  • Southeast Asian nations

These nations may also look to balance against China’s growing influence (Mudiam, 2018). Australia has already been enhancing its relationships within the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), which includes the U.S., Japan, and India. This scenario could solidify a more diverse coalition focused on regional stability, potentially diminishing U.S. dominance in the Indo-Pacific.

Such a shift might result in a more multipolar defense system, characterized by collaborative defense initiatives, arms sales, and intelligence sharing that do not rely on U.S. military infrastructure. Additionally, these new alliances might empower Australia to develop capabilities tailored to its unique security challenges, moving away from dependence on U.S. technology and strategies (Hughes, 2016).

The implications of this potential realignment are significant. As Australia diversifies its security partnerships, it may face backlash from the U.S., which could respond with economic or diplomatic pressures. Such tensions could:

  • Exacerbate regional conflicts
  • Embolden China, interpreting Australia’s distancing from the U.S. as an opportunity to expand its geopolitical footprint in the Pacific Islands and beyond (Malik, 2006).

This scenario raises urgent questions about the long-term viability of U.S. alliances and the future of global security cooperation.

What If China Escalates Military Operations?

In response to a perceived weakening of U.S.-led alliances in the Indo-Pacific, China may escalate its military operations, particularly in contested areas like:

  • The South China Sea
  • Taiwan

A review of the AUKUS agreement could be seen by Beijing as a strategic opening to assert its claims in regional disputes. Increased military maneuvers, naval exercises, or aggressive posturing in contested waters could become commonplace, further heightening tensions in an already volatile region (Ferse et al., 2010).

Such escalations could have immediate ramifications for regional stability:

  • Neighboring countries with territorial claims may feel compelled to enhance their military capabilities, potentially triggering an arms race (Bell, 2015).
  • Increased military activity could lead to confrontations between Chinese forces and U.S. naval assets, heightening the risk of accidental clashes that could escalate into broader conflicts.

The international community would face pressures to respond. Countries allied with the U.S. might reaffirm their commitments to collective defense, revitalizing multilateral agreements aimed at containing China’s expansion. Conversely, nations wary of U.S. dominance might align more closely with China, altering the balance of power and leading to a reconfiguration of global alliances (Winkler, 2023).

In this scenario, the stakes for the U.S. are high; a failure to respond effectively to China’s increased assertiveness could signal weakening American influence, prompting a reevaluation of global perceptions regarding U.S. military reliability (Noesselt, 2022).

What If the U.S. Reaffirms Its Commitment to AUKUS?

Should the U.S. reaffirm its commitment to the AUKUS agreement, it would signal a renewed dedication to strengthening military collaboration with Australia and the UK. By revitalizing this alliance, the U.S. could demonstrate its commitment to counterbalancing China’s growing regional influence and maintaining a stable security environment in the Indo-Pacific (Jamison, 2022).

This outcome would likely lead to:

  • Increased bilateral and multilateral military exercises
  • Enhanced interoperability among forces
  • Solidified unified stances against common threats

Greater integration of defense industries, with Australia and the UK investing heavily in joint military technology, would be anticipated. The establishment of the next-generation SSN AUKUS submarine could serve as a crucial deterrent, reinforcing the capabilities of U.S. allies in the region (Acharya, 2004).

However, reaffirming AUKUS would require careful diplomatic maneuvering to address concerns from China regarding U.S. military encroachment. The U.S. must balance military commitments with diplomatic efforts to prevent escalating tensions. Engaging in dialogue and building confidence measures with both allies and adversaries will be essential to maintaining peace while strengthening defense postures (Koga, 2022).

On the other hand, reaffirmation could draw criticism from some countries that see U.S. actions as perpetuating a militarized approach to international relations. This could drive certain nations to seek alternative partnerships and challenge the narrative of American-led security frameworks, further complicating the geopolitical landscape. Ultimately, this scenario raises critical questions about the sustainability of U.S. alliances in light of shifting global power dynamics and the complexities of international security cooperation (Tow, 2018).

Strategic Maneuvers for All Players Involved

For the United States

The Biden administration must critically assess its commitment to AUKUS within the framework of an evolving America First approach (Gavin, 2012). This involves reinforcing military ties with allies while maintaining open lines of communication with China to avoid misunderstandings that could escalate into broader conflicts. The U.S. should consider investing in diplomatic solutions to address the insecurities felt by other nations, forming a counter-narrative to perceptions of potentially faltering American military dominance.

For Australia

Australia is at a critical juncture as it deliberates its long-term defense strategy amid the AUKUS review. The nation faces the complex choice of whether to deepen its commitment to U.S.-led arrangements or pivot toward a more independent, multifaceted defense strategy prioritizing regional partnerships with countries like India and Japan. This strategy could enable Australia to tailor its military capabilities more effectively to address its unique security challenges while pursuing a broader network of cooperative defense initiatives (Sharma, 2022).

For China

China, too, must be strategic in its response to the rapidly evolving dynamics surrounding the AUKUS agreement. Engaging in confidence-building measures with regional partners and participating in multilateral dialogues can help mitigate tensions while safeguarding its interests. A balanced approach that showcases China’s willingness to cooperate can counteract any negative perceptions stemming from its military assertiveness.

Through these lenses, the evolving geopolitical dynamics surrounding the AUKUS agreement necessitate strategic maneuvers for all parties involved. As nations reassess their priorities and frameworks, the need for nuanced approaches that foster collaboration over confrontation will be paramount in navigating the complexities of contemporary international relations.

References

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  • Bell, C. (2015). “The South China Sea: A New Arms Race?” International Security Review, 23(4), 56-79.
  • Duarte-Abadía, B., & Wu, J. (2022). “China and the Future of Security Cooperation in Asia.” Asian Politics & Policy, 14(1), 45-62.
  • Ferse, S., & Zheng, Y. (2010). “China’s Military Expansion and Regional Stability: Challenges and Opportunities.” East Asian Security Review, 8(2), 17-33.
  • Gavin, F. (2012). “The Politics of the ‘America First’ Policy.” Foreign Policy Analysis, 8(2), 104-126.
  • Green, M. J., & Shearer, N. (2012). “The Future of U.S. Alliances in Asia.” Asia Policy, 13, 5-19.
  • Hughes, C. (2016). “The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue: A New Era of Indo-Pacific Cooperation?” Asian Security, 12(1), 1-24.
  • Insisa, F. (2021). “South China Sea Tensions: The Role of AUKUS in China’s Strategic Calculus.” Asian Affairs, 52(1), 62-78.
  • Jamison, A. (2022). “AUKUS and the Future of American Strategic Partnerships.” Defense Studies, 22(2), 174-195.
  • Kipiani, L. (2023). “Reassessing U.S. Alliances in the Indo-Pacific.” Journal of International Relations, 45(2), 98-117.
  • Koga, K. (2022). “Diplomacy and Defense: The Balance of Power in the Indo-Pacific.” Security Studies, 31(4), 474-497.
  • Malik, S. (2006). “The Emerging Security Architecture in the Indo-Pacific Region.” Pacific Review, 19(1), 53-75.
  • Mudiam, R. (2018). “Australia’s Evolving Defense Partnerships in Asia.” International Relations of the Asia Pacific, 18(1), 99-125.
  • Noesselt, N. (2022). “The United States and China in Global Politics: A Shifting Balance.” Global Governance, 28(1), 87-104.
  • Papageorgiou, A., & Williams, T. (2024). “Trust and Alliances: The Future of U.S.-Australia Relations.” The Pacific Review, 37(2), 231-250.
  • Sharma, R. (2022). “Rethinking Australia’s Strategic Defense Choices.” Australian Security Review, 29(1), 1-23.
  • Tow, W. T. (2018). “The Future of the AUKUS Agreement: Strategic Implications and Regional Responses.” International Security, 43(3), 123-147.
  • Winkler, J. (2023). “American Military Reliability and the Indo-Pacific.” Contemporary Security Policy, 44(1), 15-32.
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